At UC Riverside, where half the students are low-income, underrepresented minorities, or first-generation college-goers, the sting of rising costs and limited access is felt most acutely. The campus receives just $8,600 in state support per student, which is well below the systemwide average of $10,000. This disparity is exacerbated by an unfair UC funding formula that rewards campuses with higher nonresident enrollment. The state has attempted to address this issue, with former Assemblymember Jose Medina (AD61, 2012–2022) pushing for $790 million in one-time funding and $80 million annually for Riverside. However, the gap persists, serving as a reminder of the system’s skewed priorities.
Simon Marginson, in his poignant book The Dream Is Over, captures the heart of this betrayal, writing of a California where “the promise of inclusion and social mobility has frayed,” trapped in a “high individualist politics” that elevates markets over the public good. He argues that the Master Plan, once a forward-thinking blueprint, has become “too stable,” with its resource base eroded and its vision of universal access a shadow of what it was in 1960.
The UC system’s adoption of a “high-fee, high-aid” model, where one-third of tuition increases are reserved for grants to low- and middle-income students, offers some relief but fails to address the root issue: a system that is increasingly inaccessible to Californians.
Marginson notes the “impossibility of taxation” in a political climate hostile to public investment, a reality that has forced the UC to rely on nonresident tuition to survive. By 2012–13, tuition had become “the largest single source of core operating funds,” a far cry from the days when state support underpinned the system’s mission.
The human cost of this transformation is most evident in the stories of students left behind. Consider the young Californian, perhaps of a working-class family or the first in their family to aspire to college, standing at the gates of UC Berkeley or UCLA, only to find the odds of admission have dwindled to single digits. Or the student at UC Riverside, where the campus’s commitment to diversity is laudable but hampered by chronic underfunding, forcing faculty to do more with less.
These students, the heirs to California’s promise, face a system that increasingly caters to those who can pay the most. The 2021 Budget Act aimed to reverse this trend, with the state allocating $31 million annually to support more in-state enrollment, resulting in 5,900 additional California residents enrolling over two years. Yet, this fell 1,400 students short of the state’s target, and nonresident enrollment only dipped slightly from 17.7 percent to 16.3 percent systemwide. The UC’s reliance on nonresident tuition remains a stubborn reality, as Virtanen warned: “If we were to remove those funds, it would be catastrophic for our campuses.”
The Master Plan, once a beacon of hope, projected a future where California’s colleges would produce enough graduates to meet the state’s needs. Hans Johnson’s 2010 report warned of a looming shortage of one million college-educated workers by 2025, a gap that cannot be closed without substantial increases in enrollment and graduation rates.
Yet, the UC system’s pivot to a market-driven model poses a threat to this goal—especially with the shift to the trades and the danger of AI becoming a cultivator of knowledge that students once sought to access through a university education. Johnson proposed raising eligibility rates—to 15 percent for UC and 40 percent for CSU by 2025—and increasing transfers from community colleges, which could yield 700,000 new graduates. However, these ambitions require funding, estimated at $1.6 billion annually by 2025, a tall order in a state where higher education’s share of the budget has fallen from 7 percent in 1970 to less than 4 percent by 2008. How close were Johnson’s predictions?
The reality is a tale of partial triumphs and unfulfilled hopes. The UC system, strained by declining state support, has grown more selective, with admission rates plummeting—as noted earlier, UCLA at 9 percent, Berkeley at 14 percent—far from the inclusive 15 percent Johnson envisioned.
CSU, too, has fallen short of the 40 percent eligibility threshold, as enrollment declines and demographic shifts reduce the size of high school graduating classes. Community college transfers have surged, with UC enrolling a record 18,653 students in 2024; yet, the 700,000 graduate target remains elusive, hampered by a $1.5 billion funding gap at CSU alone and deferred state investments. The dream of a skilled workforce endures, but California’s path, like a river seeking its course, remains obstructed by fiscal realities and a wavering commitment to the Master Plan’s grand promise.
This ambition, however, has been tested by the tides of time and circumstance. The UC’s record-breaking enrollment of 198,718 California undergraduates in 2024, bolstered by a 4.4 percent rise in transfers, reflects a commitment to access. Yet, the system’s selectivity betrays Johnson’s hope for broader eligibility. CSU, grappling with empty seats at eight campuses, faces a $21 million reallocation penalty, its growth stymied by a projected 9 percent drop in high school graduates by 2026–27.
The state’s response—$464 million for teacher recruitment and preservation of Cal Grants—shows resolve, but the deferred 5 percent funding increases for UC and CSU until 2026–27 signal caution. Johnson’s vision, a beacon for a state in need, flickers but has not ignited fully, its promise dimmed by a budget stretched thin and a political will yet to match the urgency of a workforce in peril.
The state’s General Fund now prioritizes the homeless over universities, a stark symbol of shifting values. As California stands at this crossroads, the UC system’s transformation reflects a broader struggle over the soul of public higher education. The Master Plan’s vision of universal access, so carefully crafted by Kerr and his contemporaries, has been reshaped by a fiscal reality that favors wealth over mission.
The imperatives of revenue overshadow the promise of education as a public good. The question now is whether California can reclaim its vision, restoring the UC system as a beacon for its people, or whether it will continue to drift, a once-proud institution serving those who can pay the most. At the same time, its sons and daughters stand at the gates, yearning for the promise of old. The story of the UC system is, ultimately, the story of California itself—a state grappling with its ideals, its resources, and its future, in a world that demands both courage and clarity to set things right.
SOURCES | BIBLIOGRAPHY
California Assembly Budget Committee. “Freshman Admission Rates Are Decreasing at Nearly All UC Campuses.” Graphic by Yuxuan Xie. EdSource, 2022.
DiPierro, Amy. “Enrollment Rises at Some Cal State Campuses, Falls at Others.” EdSource, December 9, 2024. https://edsource.org/2024/enrollment-rises-at-some-cal-state-campuses-falls-at-others/723526.
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